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2021新能源汽车出口欧盟报告
来源:上海沐睿 | 作者:沐睿环境-莉哥 | 发布时间: 2021-09-14 | 3211 次浏览 | 分享到:

驾驶座:中国电动汽车制造商瞄准欧洲

欧洲政府和公司面临的主要发展和挑战

IN THE DRIVER'S SEAT: CHINA'S ELECTRIC  VEHICLE MAKERS TARGET EUROPE 

Key developments and challenges to  European governments and companies


格雷戈尔塞巴斯蒂安

Gregor Sebastian


主要调查结果和建议

MAIN FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

中国将成为主要的汽车出口枢纽。在技术变革、巨大产能和政府支持的推动下,中国有必要大规模出口汽车。欧洲是中国电动汽车(EV)出口商的主要市场。欧洲对电动汽车的需求仅次于中国。买家受益于高额补贴和相对完善的充电网络。中国汽车制造商在掌握欧洲安全评级方面得到了政府的支持。

China will become a major automotive export hub. Fueled by technological change,  huge production capacity and government support China has the necessary requirements to export vehicles on a large scale.

欧洲是中国电动汽车(EV)出口商的主要市场。欧洲对电动汽车的需求仅次于中国。买家受益于高额补贴和相对完善的充电网络。中国汽车制造商在掌握欧洲安全评级方面得到了政府的支持。

Europe is the main market for Chinese electric vehicle (EV) exporters. Europe has  the second highest demand for EVs after China. Buyers benefit from high subsidies and a comparatively well-developed charging network. China’s automakers have government  support to master European safety ratings.

中国政府指导并迫使中国和中国的外国汽车制造商出口。政府已经将其主要提升国家冠军的雄心降低到有利于吸收全球价值链的程度。政府还制定了目标,并提供了有关海外监管的信息,以帮助中国电动汽车制造商向海外发展。

China’s government directs and pressures Chinese and China-based foreign carmakers to export. The government has relegated its ambition to primarily promote national champions in favor of absorbing global value chains. The government is also setting targets and providing information about overseas regulations to help Chinese EV makers overseas advance.

中国制造商正在向价值链上游移动。中国汽车制造商已经超越了老牌汽车制造商,现在能够生产出令人满意的、安全的、技术先进的电动汽车。一些中国品牌有机会跻身世界上最成功的汽车制造商之列。

Chinese manufacturers are moving up the value chain. Chinese car makers have  leapfrogged established carmakers and can now produce desirable, safe and technologically advanced EVs. A few Chinese brands have a shot to rank among the world’s most successful carmakers.

中国企业的海外投资和合作使其成为全球竞争对手。全球汽车业的竞争将日益激烈,因此中国电池制造商和汽车制造商正在扩大其全球足迹。出口只是冰山的一角,因为公司采用不同的战略来利用国际品牌和进入海外市场。

Chinese companies’overseas investments and partnerships make them global competitors. Automotive competition is going to increase globally, and consequently Chinese battery manufacturers and carmakers are expanding their global footprint. Exports are only the tip of the iceberg as companies pursue different strategies to leverage international brands and access overseas markets. 

政府对中国制造商的补贴可能扭曲全球市场。中国成为领先的电动汽车市场是政府大力支持的结果。但中国的出口也受到中央和地方政府对新生产厂、研发中心和海外收购的直接支持。

Government subsidies for China-based manufacturers could distort global markets. That China has become the leading EV market is the result of substantial government support. But Chinese exports are also directly supported by central and local governments sponsorship of new production plants, R&D centers and overseas acquisitions.


一条双向道路:欧洲和中国的汽车工业日益交织在一起

中国计划在全球汽车价值链中获得更大份额

1.电动汽车为中国汽车出口提供了机会之窗

1.ELECTRIC VEHICLES OFFER A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CHINA’S AUTO  EXPORTS


2009年,中国超越美国成为最大的汽车市场和生产国。目前,三分之一的汽车在中国生产。然而,这一成功案例尚未转化为汽车出口(见附件1)。随着中国制造商将目光投向全球市场,这种情况即将改变;这是一项欧洲市场和参与者发挥关键作用的战略。

China overtook the US to become the biggest automotive market and producer in 2009. One third of all vehicles are now produced in China.1 However, this success story has not  yet translated into automotive exports (see exhibit 1). That is about to change as Chinese  manufacturers have set their eyes on global markets; it is a strategy in which European  markets and actors play a key role.


中国的低出口率意味着强大的扩张潜力

直到最近,中国的汽车制造商几乎没有经济动力进军海外市场,因为国内销量激增提振了海外市场,2008年至2016年间增长了三倍(见图表2)。一些中国国有企业在21世纪中叶开始大规模出口,这主要是为了应对政府压力,以表明中国汽车具有全球竞争力。不幸的是,华晨(Brilliance)和江铃(JMC)等国有企业的出口推动产生了相反的效果。JMC的Landwind从欧洲NCAP(一家测试机构)获得了创纪录的低安全评级,这玷污了中国汽车的声誉。

Until recently, China-based carmakers had little economic incentive to push into overseas  markets as surging domestic sales buoyed them up, tripling in eight years between 2008  and 2016 (see exhibit 2). Some Chinese SOEs started exporting on a bigger scale in the mid- 2000s, largely in response to government pressure to signal that Chinese cars were globally  competitive. Unfortunately, the export push by SOEs such as Brilliance and JMC had the  opposite effect. JMC’s Landwind received record-low safety ratings from Euro NCAP, a  testing organization, which has stained the reputation of Chinese cars.


接下来是外国汽车制造商在中国制造的出口推动(从2015年到2019年),通用汽车将中国制造的别克汽车出口到美国。当特朗普政府对中国制造的汽车征收关税时,它很快就失败了。总的来说,中国的汽车出口无论从相对还是从绝对角度看都很小。除了美国以外,中国的汽车出口大多流向新兴市场。

Next came an export push from foreign carmakers manufacturing in China (from 2015 to  2019) that saw GM export China-made Buicks to the United States. It fizzled quickly when  the Trump administration placed tariffs on China-made cars. Overall, Chinese automotive  exports have remained small, in both relative and absolute terms. With the notable  exception of the United States, most Chinese auto exports are to emerging markets.


然而,这种模式可能即将改变。全球汽车行业的技术进步和结构变化为中国汽车制造商的全球扩张创造了机会之窗。包括电气化和自动驾驶在内的几大颠覆性技术驱动趋势有可能从根本上改变驾驶和汽车制造业。汽车行业仍在不断变化,既定的等级制度正受到质疑。中国决策者认识到,现在是再次启动出口的适当时机。

However, the pattern could be about to change. A mixture of technological advances and  structural changes in the global automotive industry has created a window of opportunity  for global expansion by China-based carmakers. Several major disruptive technologydriven trends, including electrification and autonomous driving, have the potential to  fundamentally alter driving and automotive manufacturing. The automotive industry  remains in flux, and established hierarchies are being called into question. Chinese  policymakers recognize that it is an opportune time to jumpstart exports once more.


中国迅速扩大的国内汽车市场抑制了出口

汽车出口和销售的发展(2003-2020年)

中国新的出口计划可能将重点放在EVs2上,几个因素表明它可能比以前更成功:

China’s new export push is likely to focus on EVs2 and several factors indicate it may be  more successful than before:


中国是领先的电动汽车市场:在国家大力支持下,中国已成为最大的电动汽车市场(见图表3)。中国电动汽车制造商已经超越老牌汽车制造商,成为具有国际竞争力产品的领跑者,包括在奢侈品领域。国际上成功的中国电池制造商(如CATL)为中国电动汽车制造商树立了榜样。

China is the leading EV market: Aided by substantial state support, China has become  the biggest EV market (see exhibit 3). Chinese EV makers have leapfrogged entrenched  carmakers to become frontrunners with internationally competitive products, including in luxury segments. Internationally successful Chinese battery makers like CATL serve as  a role model for Chinese EV makers.

国内增长放缓:近年来,中国经济增长陷入停滞,这也降低了国内汽车市场的大幅增长率。2009-2016年间,由于国内增长带来了丰厚的回报,中国汽车制造商几乎没有出口动机。然而,随着其他经济体对电动汽车的需求快速增长,中国的汽车制造商有经济动机在全球扩张。

Slowing domestic growth: China’s economic growth has stalled in recent years, which  has slackened the dramatic growth rates in its domestic automotive market too. Between  2009-2016, China’s carmakers had little incentive to export as domestic growth offered  ample returns. However, as demand for EVs is increasing rapidly in other economies,  China-based carmakers have an economic incentive to expand globally.

国内产能过剩:中国的汽车和电动汽车行业已经严重产能过剩,但新来者继续进入该领域,包括百度等科技公司和恒大等企业集团。其结果是分裂和产能过剩加剧。2020年,89家中国电动汽车生产商的平均销量仅为15000辆3,而中国的汽车产能利用率一直在下降—2020年降至48.5%—这给电动汽车制造商带来了实现规模经济的出口压力。

Domestic overcapacity: China’s automotive and EV sectors already suffer from serious  overcapacity, yet newcomers continue to enter the field, including tech companies like  Baidu and conglomerates like Evergrande. The result is fragmentation and increasing overcapacity. In 2020, 89 Chinese EV-producers averaged sales of only 15,000 units3,  while China’s vehicle capacity utilization rate has been falling – to 48.5 percent in 2020 – which puts pressure on EV makers to export to achieve economies of scale.

国家冠军地位:中国汽车制造商渴望出口成为下一个国家冠军。在中国也希望在全球竞争的铁路行业,政府已迫使大型国有企业合并,以使中车凭借其庞大的规模获得竞争优势。一旦政府补贴结束,电动汽车行业也将出现类似的整合,因此成功的出口将给中国电动汽车制造商一个脱颖而出的机会。

National champion status: Chinese carmakers are eager to export to become the next  national champion. In the rail sector, where China also wants to compete globally, the government has forced major SOEs to merge to give CRRC a competitive edge due to sheer  size. A similar consolidation will occur in the EV sector once government subsidies end,  so successful exports could give Chinese EV makers a chance to stand out.

外国跨国公司的强势存在:外国跨国汽车制造商开始将中国作为出口中心。他们被中国领先且充满活力的电动汽车市场、当地技术和创新能力以及与电池供应商的距离所吸引。中国政府积极支持他们的出口计划。

Strong presence of foreign MNCs: Foreign multinational carmakers are starting to use  China as an export hub. They are attracted by China’s leading and dynamic EV market, local technologies and innovation capabilities and proximity to battery suppliers. China’s government actively supports them in their export plans.


中国是世界领先的电动汽车(EV)市场

电动乘用车库存(纯电动和插入式混合动力)百万辆,百分比份额(2015-2020年)

中国在电动汽车上的赌注和外国汽车制造商的参与似乎开始有了回报。最新数据显示,自2020年9月以来,月度出口稳步增长,2021年4月出口达到创纪录的150100台(见图表4)。4月份,电动汽车占中国乘用车出口的16%,其中14000辆为特斯拉车型。

China’s bet on electric vehicles and the involvement of foreign carmakers appears to be  starting to pay off. The latest data shows that monthly exports have steadily increased since  September 2020, with a record of 150,100 units exported in April 2021 (see exhibit 4). In  April, EVs accounted for 16 percent of China’s passenger car exports, of which 14,000 were  Tesla models.


中国巨大的国内市场意味着它不可能像德国、日本或韩国那样出口如此多的产品。不过,如果中国和外国汽车制造商都开始将中国作为出口基地,中国在未来五到十年内出口其产出的10%到15%是可行的。如果中国国内市场保持在2500-3000万台左右,那么每年的出口量将达到250-350万台。

China’s huge domestic market means it is unlikely ever to export as much of its output as  Germany, Japan, or South Korea. However, it is feasible that China will export 10 to 15 percent of its output within the next five to ten years, provided that both Chinese and foreign  carmakers start to use China as an export base. If China’s domestic market stays at around  25-30 million units, that could translate to 2.5 to 3.5 million exported units per year.


尽管芯片短缺,但截至2020年第4季度,中国汽车出口呈上升趋势

2019年以来中国汽车出口的发展


2.中国电动汽车的扩张以欧洲为中心

2. CHINA’S EV EXPANSION CENTERS ON EUROPE


欧洲已成为中国电动汽车出口的主要目的地(见图表5)。中国电动汽车制造商现在正试图在欧洲复制国内成功,在欧洲,雄心勃勃的绿色议程要求电动汽车的广泛采用。欧洲国家现在为电动汽车提供高额的购买补贴,欧洲逐步淘汰内燃机(ICE)汽车的势头也越来越大。5除中国外,欧洲还拥有最先进的充电基础设施。6中国电动汽车制造商利用挪威作为通往欧洲的桥头堡,因为挪威采用的电动汽车最先进;80%的新车7是电动汽车,各种福利和补贴到位,以促进供需,包括电动汽车不征收进口税。

Europe has become the main destination for China’s EV export push (see exhibit 5). Chinese  EV makers are now trying to replicate domestic success in Europe, where an ambitious  green agenda necessitates widespread EV adoption. European countries now offer high  purchasing subsidies for EVs and there is increasing momentum for a European phase  out of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.5 Aside from China, Europe also has the  most advanced charging infrastructure.6 Chinese EV makers use Norway as bridgehead to  Europe, because EV adoption is most advanced there; 80 percent7 of new vehicles are EVs  and various benefits and subsidies are in place to promote supply and demand, including  no import taxes on EVs.


政治也很重要。中国政府同意电动汽车制造商的观点,即进军发达市场以获得声誉和品牌至关重要。此外,尽管欧洲各国政府越来越关注中国的经济崛起,但它们仍然比美国更欢迎中国行动者。对中国企业来说,欧洲仍然是一个有吸引力的投资地点。

Politics also matter. China’s government shares the EV makers’ view that it is crucial  to make inroads into developed markets for prestige and branding. In addition, while  European governments are increasingly concerned about the economic rise of China, they remain more welcoming to Chinese actors than the United States. Europe continues to be  an attractive investment location for Chinese companies.


中国新能源汽车(NEV)出口主要集中在欧洲

向主要目标国家出口的单位和百分比份额(2020年)

中国汽车制造商已经在欧洲建立了研发和设计中心,以促进其进入欧洲市场。这样做使他们能够为欧洲法规做好准备,并为欧洲客户定制软件和设计解决方案。这些研发中心还可以作为反馈回路,反馈到中国,并可以影响国内的设计决策;例如,NIO使用其慕尼黑团队设计其车辆(见图表6)。

Chinese carmakers have established R&D and design centers in Europe to facilitate their  entry into European markets. Doing so enables them to prepare for European regulations  and to tailor software and design solutions to European customers. These R&D centers  also work as a feedback-loop to China and can influence design decisions back home; for  instance, NIO uses its Munich team to design its vehicles (see exhibit 6).


中国政府从2000年代失败的出口推动中吸取了教训;它现在帮助中国汽车制造商在欧洲条件下测试他们的汽车。2019年,中国汽车工程研究院(CAERI)在欧洲以外建立了首个欧洲NCAP联合批准的测试设施。新的测试设施建立在重庆良景新区,这是一个致力于促进中国汽车出口的试点地区。它使中国汽车制造商能够在向欧洲出口之前对汽车进行微调,从而避免灾难性的安全评级。第二个中国欧洲NCAP测试设施已于2021年建成。

China’s government has learnt from the failed export push in the 2000s; it now helps  Chinese carmakers to test their vehicles under European conditions. In 2019, the China  Automobile Engineering Research Institute (CAERI) set up the first Euro NCAP co-approved  test facility outside Europe. The new testing facility was established in Chongqing’s  Liangjing New Area, a pilot area focused on promoting Chinese automotive exports. It  enables Chinese carmakers to finetune their vehicles before exporting to Europe, thereby  avoiding disastrous safety ratings. A second Chinese Euro NCAP testing facility has been  established in 2021.


欧洲是中国汽车制造商的重要创新中心,德国是自2015年以来在欧洲设立的第一个研发和设计中心


3.中国政府和电动汽车制造商的目标是利用其先发优势开拓海外市场

3. CHINA’S GOVERNMENT AND EV MAKERS AIM TO USE THEIR FIRST MOVER  ADVANTAGE TO EXPLORE OVERSEAS MARKETS


中国中央政府、地方政府和中国企业在全球扩张的过程中团结一致——尽管原因不同。政府制定了全球扩张和出口的总体目标,并为中国的汽车制造商提供指导和补贴。中国汽车制造商正在采取不同的战略,如出口或海外绿地投资,以进入海外市场。

China’s central government, local governments and Chinese companies are united in their  drive to expand globally – albeit for different reasons. The government has set overarching  global expansion and export targets and offers guidance and subsidies to carmakers in  China. Chinese carmakers are pursuing different strategies such as exports or overseas  greenfield investments to enter overseas markets.


3.1政府指导正在推动中国汽车行业的全球化

3.1 Government guidance is driving the globalization of China’s automotive sector


对于中央政府来说,汽车工业具有战略重要性,因为它对经济和国家安全都至关重要。由于该行业具有双重用途,政府在该行业投入了大量资金(2009年至2017年估计为587亿美元)。到目前为止,这些投资取得了回报,因为中国现在是世界领先的电动汽车市场的所在地。其次,它希望中国吸收全球价值链的大部分。这是将产品带给消费者所需的全部活动,包括电池和智能汽车技术等关键部件的研发和生产。

For the central government, the automotive industry is of strategic importance as its crucial  to both the economy and national security. The government invests heavily (an estimated  USD 58.7 billion between 2009 and 2017)10 in this sector due to its dual-use nature. So far,  the investments have paid off, as China is now home to the world’s leading EV market. Next,  it wants China to absorb larger parts of global value chains (GVCs). That is the entire range  of activities required to bring a product to the consumer, including R&D and production of  key components such as batteries and smart car technologies.


当前的出口推动和上一次2000年代的出口推动都是在中央政府的指导下进行的。2000年代中期,目标是将重庆和沈阳等几个汽车生产中心转变为出口基地。中央政府现在已经给予各省更大的自由。这意味着各省政府应该采取主动,公布汽车政策,鼓励当地汽车制造商出口。与此同时,中央政府鼓励汽车制造商建立海外研发中心,收购外国汽车制造商,并利用中国电动汽车主导地位提供的机会之窗建立出口(见附件1)。

Both this current export push and the previous one in the 2000s were guided by the central  government. In the mid-2000s, the goal was to turn several automotive production hubs,  such as Chongqing and Shenyang, into export bases. The central government has now given  the provinces a freer rein. That means it is up to provincial governments to take initiative,  publish automotive policies and incentivize local carmakers to export. Meanwhile, the  central government encourages carmakers to establish overseas R&D centers, acquire  foreign carmakers and use the window of opportunity offered by China’s EV dominance to  build exports (see Annex 1).


3.2省级政府推动当地汽车制造商走出国门,为其所在地区实现增长

3.2 Provincial governments push local carmakers to go abroad to gain growth for  their regions


虽然中央政府没有整合电动汽车行业,但地方政府毫不犹豫地挑选赢家。他们渴望通过实现目标获得中央政府的地位,但他们的主要动机是增加地方投资和创造就业机会。他们引导并鼓励本地冠军企业走出国门,进一步推动销售并赢得声誉(见附件2)。只要生产发生在他们的草坪上,地方政府就不太关心当地冠军的所有权。

While the central government has refrained from consolidating the EV sector, local  governments are not hesitating to pick winners. They are eager to gain status with central  government by fulfilling targets, but their main incentive is to increase local investment and create jobs. They guide and encourage their local champions to go abroad to further  drive sales and earn prestige (see Annex 2). As long as production occurs in their turf, local  governments are not too concerned about the ownership of their local champion.


广东省省会广州市和安徽省合肥市的地方政府都大力支持当地的冠军企业,他们在财政上支持这些企业,甚至在NIO破产的情况下也为它们提供了帮助。Xpeng Motors是一家总部位于广州的电动汽车制造商,而NIO的总部位于上海,但已在合肥建立了其汽车生产研发中心。地方补贴帮助电动汽车制造商扩大生产,以服务全球市场(见图表7)。而位于东北辽宁省的沈阳市也在吸引宝马,该市希望成为这家德国汽车制造商的重要出口基地。

Local governments in Guangdong’s capital of Guangzhou and in Hefei, Anhui province,  have thrown their weight behind local champions which they support financially and  in the case of NIO even saved from bankruptcy. Xpeng Motors is a Guangzhou-based EV  maker, while NIO is headquartered in Shanghai but has built its vehicle-production R&D  center in Hefei. Local subsidies have helped the EV makers to scale up production to serve  global markets (see exhibit 7). And BMW is being wooed by Shenyang city in north-eastern  Liaoning province, which wants to become an important export base for the German  carmaker.


中国政府支持国内汽车制造商扩大生产,并从2017年起采取了各种措施

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