EU: Slow-moving CO2 targets for cars put EV battery boom at risk
Europe’s battery manufacturers are positioning themselves to be global leaders. Their project pipeline will be enough to power a new European car fleet that is 75% battery-electric by 2030. That’s 38 European gigafactories by 2030 (fully funded, part-funded and proposed), €39.5 billion worth in investments, creating 44,000 direct factory jobs. But existing CO2 emissions cut targets imposed on car manufacturers – a leading driver of demand for batteries – are insufficient and mean there will be a battery surplus averaging 460 GWh/year through to 2030, according to Transport & Environment (T&E). From 2030 the EU’s new ‘Fit for 55’ proposals intend to raise the car target to a 55% cut, followed by a 100% cut in 2035. T&E had already calculated that a 50% cut from 2030 (the old target) would result in a 650 GWh/year surplus from that date, by when today’s partially-funded factories should be online. To make sure demand matches supply during this crucial decade, T&E wants the EU to impose new targets well before 2030, with a 2025 car CO2 target of -25%, a 2027 target of -40%, and raise the 2030 target to at least -65%. It will ensure the factory pipeline gets delivered as planned, the sector meets its full potential, transport’s transition is accelerated, and Europe takes the lead in a technology that will win customers across the world for as long as people want to drive a car.
EDITOR’S NOTE: this article was written prior to the release of yesterday’s ‘Fit for 55’ proposals which have announced no new targets up to 2030 and sets the 2030 car target at 55%, well short of T&E’s 65%. Of course, even the best proposals do not become enforceable standards until negotiations are completed and they are approved by the European Parliament and member states.
If the battery industry delivers on all the current projects, enough batteries could be produced in Europe in 2030 to power a new car fleet that is 75% battery-electric, bringing CO2 emissions from new cars down more than 90%. This would establish Europe as an industrial leader in battery production, with more than 40,000 direct factory jobs just in battery cell manufacturing. It would also put Europe on track to deliver on the Paris climate goals and its Green Deal ambition.
EV battery pipeline will exceed demand
Yet, this bright future is in jeopardy unless strengthened CO2 standards drive carmakers to supply higher shares of electric vehicles than they would under the current regulation. Should the ambition of the current CO2 standards not be raised (red line in graph), the planned battery capacity would be almost three times higher than the demand, and 21 gigafactory projects currently planned in Europe would not see demand for their products (light blue line in graph).
This represents more than 19,000 jobs missed, and €14 billion in investments becoming stranded assets. On the contrary, T&E’s recommended car CO2 targets of -25% in 2025, -40% in 2027 and -65% in 2030 ensure adequate battery demand from future projects (yellow line).

How Europe undersells its battery ambitions
38 European gigafactories are planned to produce car battery cells by 2030, amounting to €39.5 billion worth in investments, and potentially creating 44,000 direct factory jobs.
17 such gigafactories have secured funding worth €25.5 billion, including state aid (e.g. Tesla’s Berlin gigafactory which received €1.2 billion in German federal and state support). They will create 25,000 jobs and will amount to a production capacity of 318 GWh in 2025, and 474 GWh in 2030. Four of these also plan to expand in the coming years, raising their output by 300 GWh in 2030.
10 other gigafactories have received partial funding and support, representing at least 19,000 job creations, €14 billion in investments, and a combined supply of 144 GWh in 2025 and 370 GWh in 2030. Finally, 11 other battery projects without planned production or investments are under consideration, including four additional gigafactories by Volkswagen, as it announced on its Power Day.
Current car CO2 standards put EU battery boom at risk
Under the current CO2 emission targets (Current policies: red line), there would be a consistent battery surplus in 2022–2029, averaging 143 GWh if only fully-financed projects operate, and 317 GWh if partially financed projects are also realised. As higher standards kick in in 2030, supply from fully-financed projects would fall 11 GWh short of demand, but there would still remain a 659 GWh surplus from partially-financed projects.
If the 2030 car CO2 target is simply raised to -50% (Enhanced 2030: orange line), as hinted by the European Commission in its 2030 Climate Target Plan last year, the battery surplus problem would remain in the 2020s, while in 2030 502 GWh from partially-funded projects still would not find consumers. Such a revision without ambition would not create sufficient demand through 2029, or match supply in 2030. When both the fully and partially financed projects are considered, the planned battery capacity is almost triple the minimum demand in 2025-2030 in the current policies scenario.
Europe’s battery success is in the hands of climate regulators
Matching the EU’s battery potential requires ensuring a smooth and important uptake of electric vehicles. Much of the excess battery supply will be solved if the current driver of electric vehicle production and sales—car CO2 standards—are raised in the 2020s.
T&E’s recommended car CO2 targets (-25% in 2025, -40% in 2027, -65% in 2030; Accelerated:  yellow line) would create demand for batteries from partially-funded projects as soon as 2027, and reduce surplus from such projects in 2030 by 58% to 279 GWh.
Oversupply in this scenario is comfortably within a margin that can safely be filled with either exports as Europe would then be a global industrial leader in batteries and EVs, or faster-than-expected ramp-up in electric car sales as they become cheaper to produce than conventional cars.
Recommendations
The conclusion is clear: the current EV regulations are underselling Europe’s battery potential. Demand for battery cells needs to increase significantly beyond what is needed by the current car CO2 regulation in order to avoid a possible battery bubble. The Commission’s expected plan to increase demand for EVs only in 2030 would not solve this problem.
To provide higher degrees of investment certainty the CO2 targets for cars and vans should be raised in the 2020s, especially between 2025 and 2029 where the surplus problem is most acute. In other words, if the EU doesn’t want to put the expected European battery boom at risk and wants to give the needed offtake certainty to the nascent battery market across Europe, it should increase the 2025 car CO2 target to -25%, set an additional binding 2027 target of -40%, and raise the 2030 target to at least -65%.
For more information, read T&E’s recent brief “Weak climate rules put Europe’s battery boom at risk”.

欧盟:汽车二氧化碳减排目标进展缓慢，电动汽车电池繁荣面临风险
欧洲电池制造商正将自己定位为全球领导者。到2030年，他们的项目管道将足以为一个新的欧洲汽车车队提供动力，该车队75%是由电池驱动的。到2030年，欧洲将建成38个千兆工厂(已全额出资、部分出资和计划出资)，投资价值395亿欧元，直接创造4.4万个工厂工作岗位。但根据交通与环境(T&E)的数据，汽车制造商目前的二氧化碳减排目标是不足的，这意味着到2030年，电池将出现平均每年460千瓦时的过剩。汽车制造商是电池需求的主要驱动因素。欧盟新的“适合55岁”计划计划从2030年起将汽车消费目标提高到55%，然后在2035年削减100%。T&E已经计算过，如果从2030年(原来的目标)开始削减50%，那么从2030年开始每年将会有650千瓦时的盈余，到现在部分资金支持的工厂应该投产的时候。为了确保在这关键的十年中需求与供应相匹配，T&E希望欧盟在2030年之前制定新的目标，2025年的汽车二氧化碳排放目标为-25%，2027年的目标为-40%，2030年的目标至少为-65%。它将确保工厂管道按计划交付，该行业充分发挥其潜力，交通运输的转型将加速，欧洲将在一项技术上处于领先地位，只要人们想开车，这项技术就将赢得全球客户。
编者按:这篇文章是在昨天的“适合55人”提案发布之前写的，该提案没有宣布到2030年的新目标，并将2030年的汽车目标设定在55%，远低于T&E的65%。当然，即使是最好的提案，在谈判完成并得到欧洲议会(European Parliament)和成员国批准之前，也不会成为可执行的标准。
如果电池行业能实现目前的所有项目，到2030年，欧洲就能生产出足够的电池，为75%的电动汽车提供动力，从而使新车的二氧化碳排放量减少90%以上。这将使欧洲成为电池生产的工业领导者，仅电池制造业就有4万多个直接的工厂工作岗位。它还将使欧洲走上实现巴黎气候目标及其绿色协议雄心的轨道。
电动汽车电池管道将超过需求
然而，这种光明的未来正处于危险之中，除非加强二氧化碳标准，促使汽车制造商提供比当前规定下更高的电动汽车份额。如果不提高当前二氧化碳标准的雄心(图中红线)，计划的电池容量将几乎是需求的三倍，欧洲目前计划的21千兆工厂项目将看不到对其产品的需求(图中浅蓝色线)。
这意味着有超过19,000个工作岗位流失，140亿欧元的投资成为搁浅资产。相反，T&E建议的2025年-25%、2027年-40%和2030年-65%的汽车二氧化碳排放目标确保了未来项目对电池的足够需求(黄线)。

欧洲是如何低估其电池雄心的
到2030年，38个欧洲超级工厂计划生产汽车电池，投资总额达395亿欧元，并可能直接创造4.4万个工厂工作岗位。
17家这样的超级工厂已经获得了价值255亿欧元的资金，其中包括国家援助(例如特斯拉的柏林超级工厂获得了德国联邦和国家援助的12亿欧元)。到2025年，生产能力将达到318 GWh，到2030年将达到474 GWh。其中四家还计划在未来几年扩大规模，到2030年将产量提高300千瓦时。
另外10个gigafefactory获得了部分资金和支持，创造了至少19000个工作岗位，投资140亿欧元，2025年和2030年的总供应量分别为144gwh和370gwh。最后，还有11个没有计划生产或投资的电池项目也在考虑之中，其中包括大众汽车(Volkswagen)在Power Day上宣布的另外4个gigaffactory。
目前的汽车二氧化碳标准使欧盟电池繁荣面临风险
在当前的二氧化碳排放目标下(当前政策红线)，在2022-2029年将持续出现电池过剩，如果全融资项目运行，平均为143 GWh，如果部分融资项目也实现，则为317 GWh。随着2030年更高的标准开始实施，完全融资项目的供应将比需求少11千瓦时，但部分融资项目的供应仍将过剩659千瓦时。
如果2030汽车二氧化碳的目标就是提高到-50%(增强型2030:橙色线),暗示,欧盟委员会在其2030年气候目标计划去年,电池剩余问题仍将在2020年代,而在2030年502妇女从部分资助项目仍不能找到消费者。如果没有雄心壮志，这样的修订将无法在2029年之前创造足够的需求，也无法在2030年满足供应。考虑到全部和部分融资项目，在当前的政策情景下，计划的电池容量几乎是2025-2030年最低需求的三倍。
欧洲电池的成功掌握在气候监管者的手中
要想与欧盟的电池潜力相匹配，就需要确保电动汽车的顺利和重要的普及。如果目前驱动电动汽车生产和销售的动力——汽车二氧化碳排放标准——在本世纪20年代得到提高，那么大部分的电池供应过剩问题都将得到解决。
T&E建议的汽车二氧化碳排放目标(2025年-25%，2027年-40%，2030年-65%;加速:黄线)将最早在2027年产生部分资助项目对电池的需求，并在2030年将此类项目的过剩减少58%，至279千瓦时。
在这种情况下，供过于求的幅度可以放心地用出口来填补，因为欧洲届时将成为电池和电动汽车的全球工业领袖，或者电动汽车销量会以比预期更快的速度增长，因为它们的生产成本比传统汽车更低。
建议
结论很清楚:目前的电动汽车法规低估了欧洲电池的潜力。为了避免可能出现的电池泡沫，对电池的需求需要大幅增长，远远超过目前汽车二氧化碳监管的需要。欧盟委员会预计的仅在2030年增加电动汽车需求的计划并不能解决这个问题。
为了提供更高程度的投资确定性，汽车和货车的二氧化碳排放目标应该在本世纪20年代提高，特别是在2025年至2029年之间，这期间过剩问题最为严重。换句话说,如果欧盟不愿意把预期风险和想给欧洲电池繁荣所需的承购确定性新兴的电池市场在欧洲,它应该增加2025汽车二氧化碳的目标至-25%,额外的约束力2027 -40%的目标,2030年的目标提高到至少-65%。
欲了解更多信息，请阅读T&E最近的简报“疲软的气候规则将欧洲的电池繁荣置于危险之中”。

更多信息请点击官方链接：http://energypost.eu

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