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天然气危机:市场和政策的原因,以及吸取的教训
来源:energypost.eu | 作者:沐睿环境-莉哥 | 发布时间: 2021-10-11 | 129 次浏览 | 分享到:

Gas crunch: market and policy causes, and lessons learned
Andrei Belyi at the University of Eastern Finland says there are three main causes behind the huge rise in European gas prices. Everyone already understands that the reversal of the previous gas glut that gave us such low prices has been caused by a decline in European gas production, LNG imports and Russian gas deliveries. Added to that is the utilities’ reliance on spot contracts rather than termed contracts – great when prices were low – that means even though the gas exists it’s tied to rising prices. Finally, the rising carbon price at a time when inter-fuel competition (e.g. from intermittent and therefore unreliable wind and solar) is weak and cannot provide an alternative to fossil fuels. Belyi goes into the details and the numbers, as well as reviewing the politics (Russia, Nord Stream 2, Ukraine). He ends with his four conclusions: develop a pro-LNG strategy; reduce the over-reliance on spot contracts; improve information flows (i.e. supply, risks); pursue total system reliability to avoid shortages and ensure genuine inter-fuel competition.
Debates surrounding the new energy crisis are heating up as the spot gas price achieves new records. What could have gone wrong? Commodity markets are cyclic, therefore, supply volumes and storage capacity periodically change. High commodity prices are cured by increased competition, while low commodity prices are cured by a reduction in investment activities.
In normal market conditions characterised by inter-fuel and inter-company competition, gas price hikes would not have affected energy systems overall. Previous gas price hikes occurred between 2007 and 2008 as well as between 2011 and 2014, but without reaching the current record highs. Instead, since the commodity crisis of 2015-16, the world saw a glut in hydrocarbon markets. Since then, oil prices have stabilised due to OPEC+ agreements, while gas prices have experienced an almost persistent ‘low price season’. But market trends reversed, generating unprecedented pressure on energy systems.

天然气危机:市场和政策的原因,以及吸取的教训
东芬兰大学的安德烈·贝利表示,欧洲天然气价格的大幅上涨有三个主要原因。每个人都知道,之前的天然气供过于求让我们的价格如此之低,现在的逆转是由欧洲天然气产量、液化天然气进口和俄罗斯天然气输送的下降造成的。此外,公用事业公司依赖现货合同而不是定名合同——当价格较低时,这很重要——这意味着即使天然气存在,它也与价格上涨有关。最后,当燃料之间的竞争(例如间歇性的、因此不可靠的风能和太阳能)很弱,无法提供化石燃料的替代品时,不断上涨的碳价格。Belyi谈到了细节和数字,并回顾了政治(俄罗斯,北溪2号,乌克兰)。最后,他总结了四个结论:制定支持液化天然气的战略;减少对现货合约的过度依赖;改善信息流(即供应、风险);追求整个系统的可靠性,避免短缺,确保真正的燃料间竞争。
随着天然气现货价格创下新高,围绕新能源危机的争论正在升温。到底哪里出了问题?商品市场是周期性的,因此,供应量和储存能力会周期性变化。商品价格高企是由于竞争加剧,而商品价格低企是由于投资活动减少。
在以燃料间和公司间竞争为特征的正常市场条件下,天然气价格上涨不会对整个能源系统造成影响。此前的天然气价格上涨发生在2007年至2008年以及2011年至2014年,但没有达到目前的纪录高点。相反,自2015-16年大宗商品危机以来,世界上出现了碳氢化合物市场供过于求的局面。自那以后,由于欧佩克+协议,石油价格稳定了下来,而天然气价格几乎经历了一个持续的“低价季节”。但市场趋势发生了逆转,给能源系统带来了前所未有的压力。





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